The Vegas Coin‑Flip Dilemma

Decide now: how many hands do you play?

You hold $10,000 — your whole bankroll. Each hand, a fair coin is flipped and you call it. Call right, your money grows +50%. Call wrong, it shrinks −40%. You must stake the entire bankroll every hand, and commit up front to a fixed number of hands.

Hands you commit to

Ensemble average Typical gambler (median) Individual paths Starting $10,000

Ensemble average predicts $10,000 —

Typical outcome predicts $10,000 —

Finished ahead of $10k — of 10,000 gamblers

Effectively wiped out — left with under $100